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The US Is Ramping Up Bird Flu Surveillance – But Will It Be Enough?

Dairy cows in California

Marmaduke St. John / Alamy Stock Photo

The US has ramped up influenza surveillance amid an ongoing outbreak of the bird flu virus H5N1 in dairy cattle. Public health officials hope more robust monitoring will help catch and contain any potential human outbreaks. But experts warn that without more surveillance, cases will slip through the cracks – if they haven't already – which raises the risk of the virus spurring a pandemic in people.

Since 2003, roughly 900 people worldwide are reported to have had H5N1, around half of whom died of the infection. In 2021, a…

New Method Can Calculate Transmission Weeks In Advance So Public Can Better Prepare For Outbreaks

CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. —

Using a novel forecasting approach that combines mathematics with artificial intelligence (AI), a group of Canadian and U.S. Researchers have devised a way to predict the rate of transmission of infectious diseases, such as the seasonal flu and COVID-19.

According to the team's calculations, new confirmed flu cases in U.S. Laboratories are expected to exceed 1,600 per day by the end of November – almost double compared to the same time last year, which saw 955 new cases per day.

While the team – based at the Interdisciplinary Lab for Mathematical Ecology & Epidemiology (ILMEE) at the University of Alberta – found that transmission rates are traditionally highest in December, this year's forecast anticipates an earlier flu season surge.

"The initial increase in cases this year will be slightly earlier than 2023, which peaked at the end of December with 3,299 new confirmed daily cases reported in U.S. Laboratories," said Hao Wang, ILMEE director and professor and Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Mathematical Biosciences at the University of Alberta. "It's important to know transmission patterns because if we can predict spikes in advance, public health officials can take preventative action to contain the spread of diseases."

Hao Wang's team includes Xiunan Wang, assistant professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. The duo co-authored a paper about the new forecasting approach in SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, a publication of Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM).

Using a discrete inverse method – which analyzes data from previous years to determine future outcomes – the researchers showed that the properties of both transmissibility and number of infections can be quite different. 

"There can be significant delays between the peaks in transmission rates and the peaks in the number of infections," said Xiunan Wang. She explained that the transmission rate refers to how quickly and efficiently a disease spreads within a population, representing the likelihood that an individual becomes infected after contact with an infected person. This rate captures the potential for rapid spread but does not directly reflect the visible number of infections, which may take longer to peak due to incubation periods, delayed symptom onset, or other external factors.

Infection data alone isn't enough

"Public health officials typically provide infection and death data, which are important for tracking an epidemic's impact," Xiunan Wang said. "However, this data alone doesn't offer a complete picture, especially when it comes to understanding the underlying transmission dynamics. To uncover more accurate transmission patterns, it's crucial to analyze the time-varying transmission rates." 

Hao Wang explained that combining the team's transmission data with other data-driven technologies – such as machine learning – can forecast future disease dynamics based on factors like weather conditions, policy decisions, or human mobility trends (data collected from cellphones), thus providing guidance to public health authorities about the implementation of more effective control strategies.

In this case, his team incorporated data from late 2015 to September 2024 in their mathematical model to generate a real-time transmission forecast of the number of projected infections and fatalities.

"Despite observing a significantly higher peak of flu infections in late 2022 in reports from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), our team incorporated historical U.S. Hospitals flu data into our model and estimated that while transmission and fatality rates increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, they have remained relatively stable when comparing pre- and post-pandemic periods," Hao Wang said.

"The transmission rate among individuals under 18 years old did not exhibit significant changes before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, which can be attributed to the fact that this age group primarily comprises students whose contact patterns remained largely unchanged," he added. "In comparison, in looking at flu-caused fatality, the long COVID impact on seniors 65+ was most severe during 2021 to 2023, although the fatality rate returned to the pre-COVID level during 2023-2024."

More information about the team's forecasting method – which can also apply to diseases with non-seasonal cycles, such as measles – is available in the full article (https://epubs.Siam.Org/doi/10.1137/22M1498796), which is temporarily free to read in SIAM's publications library.  

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About Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (www.Siam.Org)Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is an international society of more than 14,000 individual, academic and corporate members from 85 countries. SIAM helps build cooperation between mathematics and the worlds of science and technology to solve real-world problems through publications, conferences, and communities like chapters, sections, and activity groups. Learn more at siam.Org.

'Awful Reality': Albanese Government Injects $95 Million To Fight The Latest Deadly Bird Flu

The Australian government has committed A$95 million to fight a virulent strain of bird flu wreaking havoc globally.

With the arrival of millions of migratory birds this spring, there is an increased risk of a deadly strain arriving in Australia, known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1.

Australia is the only continent free of this rapidly spreading strain. Overseas, HPAI H5N1 has been detected in poultry, wild birds and a wide range of mammals, including humans. But our reprieve will likely not last forever.

As Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek warned on Monday, "the awful reality of this disease is that – like the rest of the world – we will not be able to prevent its arrival". HPAI H5N1 is like nothing we've seen in Australia. The extra funding, which is in addition to Australia's current biosecurity budget, will help us prepare and respond.

A trail of destruction

Avian influenza is a virus that infects birds, but can infect other animals.

In Australia we have various strains of avian influenza that don't cause disease, referred to as low pathogenic avian influenza. While these viruses occur naturally Australian wild birds, it is the disease-causing strains, such as HPAI H5N1 and HPAI H7 we are worried about. These HPAI strains have enormous consequences for wild birds, domestic animals, and animal producers and workers.

HPAI H5N1 first emerged in Asia in 1996, and has been circulating in Asian poultry for decades. Following genetic changes in the virus, it repeatedly jumped into wild birds in 2014, 2016 and again in 2020, after which it caused an animal pandemic, or panzootic.

Starting in 2021, the virus rapidly spread. First, from Europe to North America in 2021. Then into South America in 2022. There, in South America, the virus caused the death of more than 500,000 wild birds and 30,000 marine mammals.

While we had seen large outbreaks in wild birds globally, the huge outbreaks in seals and sea lions in South America was unprecedented. With this came substantial concern that the virus was spreading from mammal to mammal, rather than just bird to bird or bird to mammal, as was happening elsewhere.

About a year after arriving in South America, the virus was detected in the sub-Antarctic, and a few months later, on the Antarctic Peninsula.

Australia and New Zealand are still free of the virus, for now.

The rising death toll

Beyond wildlife, HPAI H5N1 is having a huge impact on poultry.

In 2022 alone, it caused 131 million poultry across 67 countries to die of the illness or be euthanased because they were infected.

In contrast, earlier this year Australia's biggest avian influenza outbreak to date – caused by a different strain, HPAI H7 – caused the death or destruction of 1.5 million chickens. That's a drop in the bucket compared to what is occurring globally.

Concerningly, in the United States, the virus has jumped into dairy cattle and so far has affected more than 200 dairy herds in 14 states. It has also jumping into humans: in the past ten days alone, six human cases have occurred – all in dairy workers in California.

Given HPAI H5N1 has spread around the globe, the risk of the virus entering Australia has increased.

In a recent risk assessment, my colleague and I identified two main pathways for H5N1 into Australia.

The most likely route is that H5N1 is brought in from Asia by long-distance migratory birds. Birds such as shorebirds and seabirds arrive in the millions each spring from Asia (and in some cases as far away as Alaska).

A second route is with ducks. If the virus spreads across the Wallace Line (a biogeographical boundary that runs through Indonesia), it will come into contact with endemic Australian duck species.

Unlike shorebirds and seabirds, ducks are not long-distance migrants, and don't migrate between Asia and Australia. That endemic Australian ducks are not exposed to this virus because they don't migrate to Asia may be one of the reasons why H5N1 has not yet arrived in Australia.

Unlike shorebirds and seabirds, ducks are not long-distance migrants so they haven't been exposed to H5N1. Wille & Klaassen (2023), Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Author provided (no reuse) So, what's the plan?

The Australian government's new $95 million funding commitment is a crucial response to the heightened level of risk, and the dire consequences if H5N1 entered the country.

The funding is divided between environment, agriculture and human health – the three pillars of the "One Health" approach.

Broadly, the money will be spent on:

enhancing surveillance to ensure timely detection and response if the disease enters and spreads in animals within Australia

strengthening preparedness and response capability to reduce harm to the production sector and native wildlife

supporting a nationally coordinated approach to response and communications

taking proactive measures to protect threatened iconic species from extinction

investing in more pre-pandemic vaccines to protect human health.

Importantly, the funding covers preparedness, surveillance and response.

Preparedness includes proactive measures to protect threatened birds – for example, vaccination or reducing other threats to these species and improving biosecurity.

Surveillance is essential to catch the virus as soon as it arrives and track its spread. Australia already has a wild bird surveillance program which, among other things, investigates sick and dead wildlife as well as sampling "healthy" wild birds. The additional commitment will bolster these activities.

Response will include things like better and faster tests. It will also include funding for practical on-ground actions to limit the spread and impacts of HPAI H5N1 for susceptible wildlife. This might include a vaccination program for vulnerable threatened species, as an example.

Work has already begun

This funding is a long-term investment, and mostly allocated to future activities. In the short term, my colleagues and I have already begun our spring surveillance program.

We aim to test about 1,000 long-distance migratory birds arriving in Australia for avian influenza. Based on our risk assessments, we are focusing on long-distance migratory seabirds such as the short-tailed shearwater, and various shorebirds including red-necked stints, arriving from breeding areas in Siberia.

This surveillance program is supported by, and contributes to, the national surveillance program managed by Wildlife Health Australia

In addition to our active surveillance, we need your help! If you see sick or dead wild birds or marine mammals, call the Emergency Animal Disease Watch Hotline on 1800 675 888.

In addition, the Wildlife Health Australia website offers current advice for:

For more information, visit birdflu.Gov.Au or Wildlife Health Australia's avian influenza page

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